PREDICAMENT

What is the project?

PREDICAMENT stands for predicting risk of entry and re-entry into care and risk of placement instability from early life experiences amongst children in Wales.

This research project will help identify key modifiable and actionable risk factors to inform and support early prevention and intervention services.

The research will help practitioners to identify which children and families need early-life support and interventions, and what that support could look like.

By understanding risk factors, we can help reduce the need for children to enter or re-enter care and increase their stability and well-being.

This work will focus on:

• determining the early-life risk factors for entry and re-entry into care, as well as placement instability for children in Wales
• developing online calculators for social care practitioners to identify groups of children who are most at risk and why.

The project’s ultimate aim is to improve health and social care outcomes for both children and parents in Wales.

Understanding risk factors for care entry, re-entry and placement instability can help us understand and decide future priorities for research. This can help inform the development of targeted services and how they’re put into practice.

Why is it being carried out?

There’s been a steady increase in the number and rate of children in care in Wales since 2002. Compared to the rest of the UK, Wales has consistently had more children in care per 10,000 of the population.

Safely reducing the numbers of children in need of care is a key priority for Welsh Government.

Reducing the number of children entering and re-entering the care system, and increasing stability for those already in care, will help reduce ill health later in life.

This can improve physical and mental health in children, resulting in a healthier and prosperous Wales.

Until now, research on children in care has mainly relied on publicly available annual return data by local authorities to Welsh Government. Individual-level studies on children’s experiences have also been limited.

Because of this, not much is known about the future path for children in care and their links with prior health, family and other environmental circumstances.

This project will have direct policy implications for children’s health and social care services in Wales.

The research will help practitioners to identify which children and families need early-life support and interventions, and what that support could look like.

Where and when is the work taking place?

This research will be taking place across Wales.

The three-year project started in October 2023, with the aim to finish in September 2026.

Who’s involved?

The research is led by Swansea University and will be carried out using the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank.

The study steering groups will include input and support from Social Care Wales and researchers from Cardiff University.