Understanding the drivers and implications of care workforce change

What is the project?

This Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) Centre for Care study has two main aims.

Firstly, it aims to investigate the effects of recent social care policy reforms on the workforce, addressing the following questions:

• What are the main policy drivers of workforce change in social care in the UK?
• What intended and unintended consequences have these policy drivers had for the social care workforce?

Secondly, the study aims to explore the future social care workforce by asking the question:

• How can policy reforms and other drivers interact and create long-term change?

The research team has carried out a literature review and discussed the findings with a diverse group of stakeholders.

Stakeholders have included people who use social care, representatives of care workers and employers, representatives of relevant national bodies, such as Social Care Wales, and experts at think tanks and universities.

To explore future workforce change, the research team has adapted foresight methods and asked stakeholders to create hypothetical future scenarios of how different factors will have shaped the social care workforce by 2035.

Why is it being carried out?

The social care workforce is estimated to include more than 1.7 million jobs in the UK.

The workforce is mainly female, with a high number of migrant workers and individuals from minority ethnic groups. This workforce is dynamic, with roles evolving and new tasks emerging.

The evolution of the social care workforce is shaped by long-term labour market trends, such as an increasing proportion women in the workforce, insecure working conditions, and situations where individuals are likely to work flexibly across several jobs and between employers.

Recent external shocks such as Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic have also impacted social care workforce job quality and outcomes.

The care workforce faces long-standing challenges, including high vacancy rates, high turnover, low pay, and limited opportunities for career progression.

Where and when is the work taking place?

The study is focused on all four nations of the UK. It started in July 2022 and ends in March 2025.

Who’s involved?

The study is part of the Workforce Change Research Group's ongoing efforts at the ESRC Centre for Care and has been funded by the ESRC and the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR).

Social Care Wales took part in the stakeholder consultation.

What's been learned from the project so far?

Drawing on the findings of the literature review and the stakeholder consultations, the research team has identified key policy reforms that shape care workforce change.

The ideas and experience of experts working in social care in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland have helped shape stakeholder consultations, such as when discussing care workers’ pay and compulsory registration.

Using the key policy reforms as building blocks, the stakeholders have created hypothetical future scenarios about long-term social care workforce change.

The research team has presented emerging findings from the project at two conferences, and they’re currently working on the project report and journal articles.