Updated projections data gives insight into future social care needs

Why is projections data on the portal?

People working in social care in Wales have told us that forecasting future service need is a high priority. They used projections data for: 

• population needs assessments, which look at what services will be needed in the future
• market stability reports, which look at what provision is likely to be available
• commissioning of services such as placements for children.  

We worked with ST Analytics to look at how we could improve the projections data we offer. Talking to those in social care, we found many had problems using projections data on the portal, which may be due to it not loading and the data not meeting their needs.  

They wanted data at local and national levels, longer term projections covering 10 to 20 years, and were more interested in topics such as dementia, multi-morbidity, and people’s ability to carry out day to day tasks. Projections should be updated regularly.  

The projections data on the portal was last updated in 2020.  

New projections

Using the feedback we received, ST Analytics identified updated prevalence rates.  

By applying those to the latest population projections for local authority areas in Wales, we can add projections that better reflect what we currently know about future populations. 

Going forward, the plan is to update the projections more regularly, when data on prevalence rates changes or new population projections are released. Previous projections data is still available on the portal in an archive section. 

However, while the feedback we received about the projections data showed people found it useful, the data, and this update, doesn’t fully meet their needs. 

The current projections are limited because they simply apply current prevalence rates to future population numbers. The projections don’t account for any future changes in policy or population make-up or health.   

In talking to users of the projections, we found the questions they’re trying to answer need something more complex than just a future number of individuals with a condition.  

We may be able to help more in future by identifying relevant data and research and offer resources on how to use them. Where there’s evidence gaps, we could work with data owners to publish more information and develop a list of further research questions and data needs specifically for social care projections. 

We can also look at producing our own data analysis and exploring adding scenario planning tools to the portal. This could allow people to break down projections by different population groups or by looking at the impact of specific policy ideas.